Trading Forex and FX in Singapore

Hi Traders, It’s been some weeks when the market gone berserk. Some say that there is risk aversion on carry trade, economists says that carry trading is unwinding. So what is happening? Is that true? But my charts say otherwise. It is the favorite currency pair of all time, the AUD/JPY. Let’s look at the Daily chart now.

If you are a follower of my blog, you will have absolutely no problem following this trade. I have explained before in my previous posts that this currency pair requires no extra maintenance. Once the price moves down to a good support and resistance, watch out for the Williams % R indicator or RSI. If the Williams % R or RSI has moved into the oversold area, it is the time to BUY. Never never never short a carry trade curency pair, if you ever do, you will be sorry. When traders or investors used a specific currency pair for carry trading, the flow is always up, and uptrend; so if you swim against the current you will be drowned!

This is exactly what happened to the AUD/JPY a few days ago, the price went down to hit a good support and resistance on 100.30 area, this is where you get in. See how the price moved up, it is a 200pips trade in a few days. Not too bad for a no brainer trade. Like I said, do your due dillegence, do your own homework. Sometimes if you are too careful you will miss a lot of opportunities, Analysis Paralysis, sounds familiar? Anyway, if you miss this trade, you should not feel bad, the market will always be there tomorrow. So keep looking.

Trade Well

ps. click for previous posts on aud/jpy for carry trade trading.

Hi Traders, as promised, I have enclosed my analysis on the Gold Chart. As I am a gold bug myself, I have been keeping gold for the past 3 years. And yes, I am making some tidy profits. My anaylsis for buying gold 3 years ago was mainly because of the oil price; I have done some research on the oil and speculated that the oil price will spike due to peak oil. Below is the daily chart of the Gold Price.

The gold price has already broken the downtrendline, it has retraced and is making a bullish charge! The first resistance will be the 960 area, this is where the Gartley pattern is. As I have explained briefly on gartley pattern trading, the probability is 70%. But that will also depends on the bullishness of the candlesticks, if the gold price is very bullish, it will just break the gartley zone and head for the butterfly zone which is around the 990 area.

Since the oil situation is highly volatile and I really don’t see any backing off anytime soon, I will say that the gold price will charge through the gartley zone; probably with a bit of retracement and continue with it’s journey to the 990 area.

$990 will be where I will be watching closely, as I may unload all my gold at that price. I will be watching real close and see the price momentum. If anything that will cause the gold price to fail at $990, I will sell it immediately as butterfly pattern is quite a real deal.

So you think that is the end for Gold. Not so close my friend, the party’s not over! I forsee a major retracement and that will be where I will buy again! My passion for gold is not over yet, not so soon. I expect gold price to hit at least $1500, so hang on traders, ride the trend.

Trade Well

Hi Traders, another exciting day of trading like. I have spotted a good set up coming on the NZD/USD. As everyone knows that the NZD is very bearish since the announcement that they will be cutting the interest rates from an hefty 8.25%. So if you still thinks that this is news to you, you are either not a forex trader or you are hiding in some caves waiting for apocalypse. LOL, that being said, with the fundamentals on the bearish signal as a background, you will not want to buy this currency pair, but ONLY to Short it. So let’s take a look at the the Daily Chart for some action…..

This is a Daily Chart od NZD/USD. Look at the beautiful set-up, there are so many confluences of this event going to take place, I will be watching carefully on this pair for a SELL. If you are familiar with Gartley Patterns, then you will appreciate what I am going to demonstrate, if you are new to this gartley pattern then you will have to google it; it may be very technical to most people to understand but in the coming days, I may do a simple write-up on gartley pattern trading. So here goes, if you pull a Fibonacci from a previous high to the low of A, and pull another fibonacci from A to B, you will get a price projection. And the rules of the gartley pattern is as such that AB = CD, so the price projected should be around 0.7725 area. You will also notice that the 150MA (moving average) will most likely to touch that area too. And price projected area of 0.7725 is also a previous support and resistance. Want more?! The price projected area of 0.7725 is also the upper trendline of a downtrend area. With so many convergences all coming together is like the aligning of the 9 planets, I will sure to watching this area closely. But please remember don’t jump the gun and pull the trigger when price hits 0.7725, always wait for signals to enter, eg. Fibonacci, look at the 4hr chart to see what’s happening, look at candlestick signal etc. If you are unsure, read my previous post on 78 forex strategies for professionals and amateurs.

Ok traders, I have shared enough, all this chart analysis and years of experience I shared is free, and I do hope you can do some appreciate me for some clicks. I will be sharing more on gold price next, stay tuned.

Hi FX Traders, do check in more often, for the next few days I will blog more on my live trading and even gold price. If you are a gold bug like I am, what price will you be unloading? I will show you my chart and tell you exactly at which price I will be selling. Below is my next installment of my forex strategies that every professional will follow…..

46. Remember, trading is not an exact science. When the price goes to the sell zone S1 or slightly just below the central pivot point, that does not mean you are ready to enter a short order. Pivot point trading works something like a rubber band, the more the price move away from the central pivot point, the higher the probability it will reverse. So pay attention to the convergences or signals, don’t be impatient, don’t sell or buy too soon.

47. Always keep a good trading journal. This will help you learn from your mistakes. Many traders including me are just too lazy to keep a trading journal, but for newbies are a must.

48. Never force trade. There are no rules that says you have to trade everyday, or the more you trade the more money you make. This is absurd! When there are no set-ups, just leave the computer and do something else, go for a coffee and check back later. If you are feeling angry or upset, please don’t trade, these negative feelings can get you in a fix. I have mentioned before, forex is a very big and liquid market, there are vast amount of opportunities. Wait for the right set-up to enter.

49. Magic values for MACD? Just use the default settings, you are only using it for MACD Divergence trading.

50. Patience young Skywalker. When you see price in between pivot points, don’t trade (yeah it’s a cliché, but it’s important). Unless you see a very strong signal or multiple convergences then you consider going into a trade. Patience is a virtue, learn it.

Click here for previous fx strategies if you have missed any…..

Hi traders, it’s been a long time since my last update. SO what do you think about the last meeting on sunday by the OPEC? I really think that it is a waste of time on the western countries part, my view is that it is just another Oscar Award ceremony! And the nominees are Iraq, Iran, Kuwait etc…. And the winner is… Saudi Arabia!!! Haha, that’s right, it is all a put up of a good show to let the whole world know that they are doing something. But actually, to the OPEC, who cares!?

To the US, they have been telling the OPEC to increase the oil output, to keep the oil price low. But in actual fact, which I agree with the Saudis, the high oil price is because of the falling dollar. So why don’t the US do something about their own dollar? Because they can’t! The Feds will not, and cannot raise any interest rates at the moment because of the subprime issue. If the Feds were able to raise interest rates, they would have done it long time ago to kill inflation. So the Feds are in a catch 22 situation.

If I am one of the OPEC nation, I will sit and wait. Why worry about the US saying that if the economy is in a recession, thus dragging down the consumption of oil?! The OPEC will simply wait till the world is in a recession then they will do something about the oil price, right?  Why do it now when they are milking billions from the consumers right now? It just don’t make sense. Think about it, the nations that agree to raise oil output are both US allies, it’s all politics. And the Saudis raising the output by 200,000 barrels a day, is a drop in the ocean. It is just another goodwill gesture to tell the US, please don’t bother me.

So if you really think that the oil price will drop in the coming weeks, think again. My view is that the investors and speculators will read that the oil peak is near, and the OPEC do not have much oil output to buffer if the oil price were to rise further. To me, $150 per barrel is not a miracle anymore, it is just a matter of time, which is very near. If the market decide to reach $200 per barrel, that will need a war by Israel or some other disaster to spark it of. Click for other trading strategies.

Hi Traders, it’s been a while I have been writing anything for the past week. Have been busy with trading. I believe lots of fx traders are downed badly when Benanke made his speech yesterday. Lots of currency crosses made a reverse. Well, that is trading. Anyway, here’s the next installment for the essential forex strategies…..

41. Cutting losses professionally. When you are face with a market coming against you, what do you do? In military training, they are always taught to follow a set of Standard Operating Procedures or SOP. So you got to have your own set of SOP, risk management, money management, when to cut loss and how much. This will help you to trade more successfully.

42. If you can, only trade during the most volatile time period which is the London open, New York 3am. This is the time where EUR starts to get active and find a direction to make the 70+ pips daily for the next 12 hours.

43. Ascending Triangles is another bullish chart pattern. The top trendline is flat and the bottom trendline is moving up. You will often see a breakout at the flat point. To measure the target, take the distance of the highest Triangle and move up starting from the flat top. Descending Triangle is a Bearish chart pattern, it is the opposite of Ascending Triangle.

44. You do not enter a trade in between pivot points, I have mentioned it over and over again. But that does not mean you have to wait until the price move to the pivot point before making an execution. Use various indicators and signals o confirm the direction of the price, MACD Divergence, Support and Resistance, chart patterns, candlestick formations….You know what to do. Trading is not an exact science, so you have to trade with discretion.

45. If you are not sure what the price is heading during the London session, wait for the price to form a strong trend. If the trend is making a head way near the 70+ pips area, wait till it reaches the next pivot point before making a decision. Or you can wait for the price to pull back to the previous pivot point before entering a trade. Don’t jump in too early, or you can get yourself into a false signal. If you got into a trade at 46 pips in the session, you still got 30 pips to go, don’t force trade.

Click back for previous posts on the Essential Forex Strategies.

Billionaire investor George Soros says that while declining Middle East supply and rising demand by China play a part in the rising price of crude oil, speculators are a key cause of the sharp rise in gas-prices.

In interview with The Daily Telegrah, Soros said that speculators have a strong effect the rising oil price, which hit a record $135 a barrel last week. Soros said that the ‘oil bubble’ will not burst until U.S. and Britain are both in a recession, during which oil prices may drop dramatically.

“Speculation… is increasingly affecting the price,” he said. “The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles,” he said.

Soros said that the bubble will eventually correct itself but it is unlikely to happen until the recession reduces the demand.

Hi Forex Traders, I am posting this to let you know that a trade set up may be presenting itself on USD/JPY H4 chart. See below…..

The price is retracing on a downtrend, I am still bearish and I think the downtrend is stil intact. There 2 levels which I will keep my eyes on to sell this currency pair. It converge on my Gartley pattern. What ?! What is a Gartley pattern?! Well, it is part of a Fibonacci sequence which is kind of deep and long to explain, I will leave it to other time. Anyway, the levels I will be watching are 103.56 that also converge with previous support and resistance and weekly pivot ; and 103.75. With that in mind, I DID NOT SAY to sell at these levels, I only say watch out for these levels. Only enter the market when there is a price confirmation, like candlestick formations, divergence etc….. So let’s pay close attention to it now. See you….. Trade Well

Hi forex traders, It has been a great day! Got a few trades today, and make some respectable pips. Here I will just talk about the GbpJpy. Let’s pull out the Daily Chart and take a look…..

Can you see the GREEN trendline that I marked? You can see that it is a breakout trade strategy. When trading breakout strategy, never jump the gun, always wait for price to retrace then pull the trigger. Let’s got to the H4 now…..

Now can you see the Daily chart GREEN trendline? See how price broke through the trendline and retraces back to it. Once the price has broken through the trendline, it will be hard to break through it again. So now you want to look for a place for entry. And there you have it, the rejection candle on the Previous support and resistance and also converge on the Green trendline, I will enter on the next candle and wait for the price to move down. My exit is the previous resistance. A word of warning on this currency pair gbpjpy, the spread is huge, 9 pips ; and this pair is really fast, sometimes you can’t really catch the price momentum. So if you are just an amateur in forex trading, please stay out of this pair!

Okay fx traders, it’s late, I need to sleep, it has been a tiring week with so much trading going on. Tomorrow I need to go watch a movie to relax my mind, probably I go watch Narnia. You must be wondering what are those blue triangles on the chart, well, that will be a deep topic next time. Click on my previous post for clues on how I trade. Trade Well

Hi forex traders, another day another bag of pips in my account. I traded this currency pair usd/jpy making a cool 35 pips, not too bad thinking that it was a give away. As you have read my previous posts, usd is weakening and it’s going down. Before you trade, you should at least do some homework by peeking at the DOW Futures (hint hint), this will certainly give you some heads-up on what’s going to happen, or at least prepare you. Once the usd/jpy is heading south during the London session, then you should get ready for the price to retrace. This is my usual S.O.P. I have been talking about over and over again. Let’s see the H1 chart…..

Once the price retraced, watch out for the fibonacci levels, see how the price respects fibonacci 50% converge with previous support and resistance. Wait for price action, see how the price form a rejection candlestick telling me that the selling pressure is higher than the buying pressure. And notice the rejection candle touches the EMA 4, this is a string of confluence, trade it on the next candlestick! Once you are in the trade, always exit on the previous low, or at least take some profit out if you are trading multiple lots. See how the price bounces off the previous low. This is a simple trend trading strategy, knowing the Dow is down, usd is weakening, oils is spiking.

Tomorrow I will be sharing a simple secret that you can profit during your sleep, almost……. Click my previous posts to find some clues on my trading. Trade Well