First of all, I will pronounce a bad news on the S&P500, see the rounded top? That is a bearish long term pattern, I have caution most traders on my previous post about the development of this Rounded Top since last year, and now it is forming perfectly.

On the Elliot Wave front, now we are actually on a correction after a rally started on 2008. It is forming a Wave C down, where the first target should be 955. The second target should be 850. But I really doubt that the S&P is going to break the 2007 low of 688, It could be just another correction of Wave 2 of a Larger Degre.

Conclusion, the S&P500 looks bearish and so should the world index. Look out for volume to turn down when market make a sharp rally or spike, that could be a signal that the rally has ended.

Ok Traders, that’s all I got for now, I will be updating more forex signals soon. Do check back.

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Let’s get down to some forex trading business now. You have seen the PIIGS lately, what they are doing and how they have really affected the forex market. I have been posting on my facebook about the coming crash on the EUR 2 months ago, and it came true. When Greece PM Papandreou says that “if the hedge funds or investors try to bet against Greece, they will lose their shirts.” Well, Papandreou should see what I wrote in my facebook, “Before we are to lose our shirts; you would have already LOST YOUR PANTS!” True to the bone, all those rhetoric is not going to help him. And Sarkozy has been taken a Back Seat, leaving the woman (Merkel) to do the job. Sarkozy has lost his gung ho speeches, reprimanding traders, calling a stop to it. Anyway, all this can be seen from the charts. Enough said, let’s look at the Eur/Usd H4 chart now…

The above chart is the Elliot Wave count I have done. This is a long time due SELL on the Eur/Usd. You can see that Eur/Usd has been in a consolidation since Feb. Those who tried to Sell on Wave 4 may be whipped, or suffered some loses. As a rule of a thumb, never trade on wave 4 on any elliot wave count, because it is the most difficult to read; you will never know when will wave 4 ends, for all you know, it could be a flat and it may last for months in consolidation.

So finally, the time has come. That thick light blue line on the chart is 1.3200 major support. Why do I call it a major support you may ask? Because it is a NUMBER that most Analyst talked about! And of course it is a whole number. I have been on alert when it punched through 1.3200 initially, price bounce a little, and it pushed right through taking me in. Beautiful.

Now the next price level to watch is  1.2800, it is a Fibonacci extension of 162% from 1.3683 to 1.3109, it s also a whole number or psychological level. I have since scaled out some of my trades. Now it has gone pass that price level to 1.2500. And I have been completely gone out of the market. Looking at the carts, I believe it is doing a wave 4 now, consolidation mode, and it is friday also. I hardly leave trades over the weekend. I will be watching the 1.2500 level again next week if my elliot wave count unfolds to be correct, I will be selling eur again on wave 5.

Ok Traders, that is all for now, I will be posting some trades fro time to time. If you wanna catch me mostly on a daily basis, come to my facebook http://www.facebook.com/tradethemarkets I will be updating the markets from time to time, in a more often basis, because my new shiny cellphone allows me to update my facebook anywhere I go. LOL.

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Enjoy and..

Trade Well

Just take a good look at the price action, and compare it with what I have posted yesterday. It just went according to what I have planned on the elliot wave count. Price just bounces off and completed a wave 4, make a nice shoot up on it’s way to wave 5 of the Elliot wave count; just as the price action shot through the neckline of the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, it retraces and bounces off again to the 365 MA moving average. Wow Wee, Kaching!!! I was so excited when I got up in the morning to see this; came home in the evening and and got out of the trade with 500 pips in my pocket

For those who have missed this trade alert, don’t be dismayed; opportunities are always there and the market is always ope, just like 7/11….. Untill then, remember to visit my blog often as I often give out trade set ups.

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Well, to kick off this absense from the forex scene this few months, here is something I want you to look at….. GBP/USD.

It is a very clear Gartley pattern on the 4hr chart. Enter on price exhaustion and ride the wave. Here is smething I want you to pay attention on, it’s the Elliot Wave count. Currently, it is making a Wave 4, if the wae 4 is confirmed, it is moving up to make a wave 5. If that happens, then you will have a Head and Shoulders pattern unveiling right in front of your eyes! Can you see the neckline of the Head and Shoulders that I have drawn(Green Trendline)? Yes that’s right, it is an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and a bullish one. Find and opportunity to enter the trade. If you are unsure how to enter a trade in your favor, read my past posts, you can find several examples on how I enter a trade.

Okay people, that is all for now, I promise it will be a daily affair soon. So drop by often.

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Look at the chart I sent out 2 days ago and the set-up that I have explained on why this is a good trade. (Click here for Gartley pattern). This is a Elliot wave symmetrical triangle set-up. As I have cautioned on the previous post, there may be a throwover on wave e, as this is normal, so don’t enter the trade simply by placing an order on wave e, you will be stopped out! As you can see, before any execution or enrty. For this trade I looked into the 15min chart for a better entry, as there is a gartley on 97.00, I just love whole numbers as they are psychological barriers. Price just spiked and bring me into the trade, and it went down and down into money. So far it is a 200pips trade!

Now let’s look at the EUR/USD trade, if you do not know what is happening, click here on the previous post on the forex trade alert I sent out 2 days ago. (click here for Gartley pattern trading).

Look at this similar trade set-up, it is another symmetrical triangle elliot wave counting. There is no throwover at wave e for this trade. Go into the 15min chart and you can see a Doji on wave e, this is where you enter and fire away! What a clean and good trade that I pocketed 100pips out of it. Another way to confirm a trade is look for MACD divergence, Stochastic divergence or RSI divergence. Well forex traders, that is all for now, if you like this site please donate to keep it going.

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Well, well, well….. you can see there are 2 Symmetrical Triangles here. A big one, and a smaller one forming, we are looking at the smaller one now.As you can see, price action is forming a Wave d now, it will be going up heading towards Wave e . Dont just enter the trade at wave e, look for signals, it may be a throwover. Wait for divergences or candlestick signals, or you may choose to execute the trade on a lower timeframe 15min. I can also see a convergence on 150MA on wave e. So be on your guard at all times when trading forex, have probabilities on your side before you fire away.

Trade well

As you can see, I am using Elliot wave count and Gartley for forex trading here.Elliot wave counting is really a tough subject, it is not something that you can pick it up in a few days; you may need weeks of reading and studying, then recognizing the patterns is another story. Well, as you can see there is a classical Symmetrical triangle forming, in Elliot Wave terms, it needs 5 waves to complete the counts, wave a - e. Now we are at wave e, this is where you find an entry to short the EUR/USD. My favorite weapon of choice, Gartley pattern trading. YOu can see a convergence of a gartley pattern at 1.2700, this is where I will wait for my entry. Why 1.2700? Well, it is a psychological barrier because of whole numbers. Anyway, I will not just jump in to an take the trade, I will be looking into the usual rejection candlesticks formation. Or go into a lower timeframe on 15min for and entry. Also look for divergence for a confirmation if you like. Okay people, that’s all for now, will be back for more.

Trade Well

61. If you are having problems getting into a good entry, you are not confident enough to use support and resistance or pivot points for entry; then just use hammer candlestick or spinning top candlestick or doji to enter. These are powerful reversal candles coupled with pivot points and support and resistance.

62. If you dabble with position trade in forex, you should use 1 hourly chart as your trigger. Hourly chart should have more precedence than 1min chart, but that really depends how your strategy is. If that works for you, then by all means use the hourly chart for decisions. It is true that a longer time frame has more power, but that depends on your strategy again.

63. When you see a hammer, do you enter a trade immediately? You should not enter any trades based on 1 signal. Your hammer candlestick should accompanied with pivot points and support and resistance, trend breakouts…. If the hammer is not accompanied by any of those signal, then don’t enter.

64. Volume is not relevant in forex trading. Forex is a very liquid and large market, no indicators in the world can calculate volume yet. So if you use any strategy that include volume, then I think it is not relevant to forex trading. You should just use what I always mentioned: support and resistance, pivot points, MACD divergence, candlestick formations and chart patterns. These are more than enough for precise professional forex trading.

65. Stay out of trading the news. As a newbie, trading the news is not for you. Anyway, during news or time around news data, you may not get a good spread or even an entry. So the best advice is don’t trade the news.

Trade Well

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OVERVIEW

<!–[if !ppt]–>   As an experienced professional trader and money manager, Edward Ponsi has advised hedge funds, institutional traders and individual traders of all levels of skill and experience. Now he’s going to share his best trading techniques with you in this one-day only special event! This comprehensive, two day, training course is designed for those who are ready to trade Forex seriously. BENEFITS Discover the Secrets of Successful Forex Trading Acquire & Apply Trend Trading Strategies Engage In practical game theory Create Clear entries, stops & exits Develop in Rules to Live By Market Outlook How you can benefit from it Exclusive Lunch* with The Master Photo & Autograph* with The Master * For Gold Class Only This is an opportunity not to be missed. REGISTER NOW ! PROGRAM OUTLINE Event Date : 24th Nov 2008 (Monday) 9am – 5pm Event Venue :  HDB Auditorium, HDB Hub, 480 Lorong 6 Toa Payoh Level B1 Singapore 310480 Session A: 0845 – 0945 hrs :: Introduction - Prepare for Battle 0945 – 1015 hrs :: The tools of the Trade 1015 – 1030 hrs :: Break 1030 – 1145 hrs :: Trend Trading Strategy - applied to the current market 1115 – 1245 hrs ::  Non-Trend Trading Strategy - applied to the current market 1245 – 1345 hrs :: Lunch Break Session B: 1345 – 1425 hrs :: Practical game theory 1425 – 1525 hrs :: More Trading Strategies - Part 1 1525 – 1540 hrs :: Break 1540 – 1600 hrs :: More Trading Strategies - Part 2 1600 – 1700 hrs :: Rules to Live By ABOUT YOUR TRAINER   His published works include the following: FOREX Patterns & Probabilities – Trading Strategies for the Trending & Range-Bound Markets FX Educator  (DVD) – Trading Strategies for the Forex Market <!–[if !ppt]–>   Edward Ponsi is an internationally famous Forex trader, author and teacher who has appeared  on CNBC, CNN, BBC, and FOX.  An experienced professional trader and money manager, Ed has advised hedge funds, institutional traders, and individuals of all levels of skill and experience Ed gives personal trading instruction to students around the world, and is featured on the several best-selling Forex DVDs.  He is a sought-after public speaker, consultant, commentator and writer, and has appeared in numerous seminars, trading magazines, and live broadcasts.  Ed practices what he preaches as he is a serious trader for his own account and also manages money for clients. <!–[if !ppt]–> TESTIMONIALS “I want to thank you for a fabulous weekend!! I was struck by your generosity, your intelligence, and your passion. It was a gift.” …Richard Powell, NY “Your newscast has very thoughtful information - this opens up a whole new world of fundamental insight and trades. Thanks for the tip on the EUR/GBP I got in last night and was in the money this morning !” …Tom Draney, Arizona “Thank you so much for everything last weekend! My head is still swimming with everything we went over!” …Shawn Hughey, NY “I watched your stuff on the trader’s webinar workshop and felt your stuff and the whole workshop was fantastic.” …Brian Reilly, Australia “Just a quick note to commend you both (and Jamie) on the material and delivery at the NYC Traders Workshop. It is obvious why you are sought out in the market - you not only know your stuff but have the ability to deliver and explain in a very clear and concise manner. I know that my trading will improve exponentially as I customize your ideas and strategies to my trading style. I wish you continued success. Thanks again and regards.” … Ray Jimenez, South Florida Dear Ed, Once again, I couldn’t help but to let you know of my success with this pair….and as your humble student, 90% of the credit goes to your teaching and mentoring…as always! I opened the position with three Lots on the slight curvature of the 20EMA on June 13th @ 240.27. Stop was placed at 238.47, which was under the previous 2-3 day consolidation as well as under the medium-term 50EMA. I arrived at Exit I on the 19th @ 245.20…which turned out to be a Daily Doji close…so I was concerned…but not overtly concerned. My Stop was moved accordingly, of course, and on we went… Exit II arrived @ 246.54…just above the round numbers and a strong dynamic support there at 246.50…on the 22nd….and Stop was moved again. At this point, I had a choice to make, as technicals were telling me a pullback was certainly due…..as we were hovering around the 23.6% Fib of the current upleg, which was 246.27 on my charts. I was certainly pleased that I “tweaked” this second exit a bit…even if it was an “upside” tweak….I wanted to get just a touch through the 246.50 level….. My final exit arrived with some nervousness at 247.42 on the 25th…as the previous day’s close was a beautiful Doji……. This is when I truly realized….so what! With proper management of the trade, I could have been stopped out on the 19th with 497 pips risk free, as my stop was properly moved. When this little revelation hits…this is when I truly realize my level in climbing the learning curve these past 20 months with you…and it’s quite a feeling….and this feeling is the best part! It tells me I have properly planned the position, monitored appropriately, maintained my risk, and been patient. I know the Carries cannot go on forever and the markets will constantly change…but having these plans and structures you have taught me, gives me all of the solid foundations for anything that may arise in any trading situation! Feel free to use this one as a shameless plug for your teaching experience, the book, the DVDs, having someone by you a drink…anything!…hee hee… Sincerely, (name is not disclosed for confidential reasons) REGISTER NOW!!!