My Daily Forex tips and advice

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

USD: Fed eases by another 50bp JPY: December industrial output falls short EUR, CHF: KOF disappoints GBP: King re-appointed NOK, SEK: Riksbank sees inflation rising AUD, NZD: NZ building permits drop ZAR: Inflation pushes higher PLN: NBP hikes as expected Technical FX: AUDUSD pushes toward resistance.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Push above 1.4716 exposes 1.4922/68. Support at 1.4661 […]

USD: Fed eases by another 50bp JPY: December industrial output falls short EUR, CHF: KOF disappoints GBP: King re-appointed NOK, SEK: Riksbank sees inflation rising AUD, NZD: NZ building permits drop ZAR: Inflation pushes higher PLN: NBP hikes as expected Technical FX: AUDUSD pushes toward resistance. EURUSD NEUTRAL Push above 1.4716 exposes 1.4922/68. Support at 1.4661 ahead of 1.4592 USDJPY BEARISH Bounce from 104.97 is encouraging, but a move beyond 107.89 is needed to relieve the immediate bear threat. Interim support at 105.95 ... Read More

AUD, NZD

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

New Zealand’s new dwelling units (including apartments) fell 5.2% m/m (s/adj) and 6.7% y/y in December, following a flat month in November. The OIS market is pricing in 31.5bp of easing over the next twelve months. In Australia, DEWR skilled vacancies fell 4.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 14.8 y/y in January. However, the three-month moving […]

New Zealand's new dwelling units (including apartments) fell 5.2% m/m (s/adj) and 6.7% y/y in December, following a flat month in November. The OIS market is pricing in 31.5bp of easing over the next twelve months. In Australia, DEWR skilled vacancies fell 4.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted) and 14.8 y/y in January. However, the three-month moving average is down a more modest 1.6% y/y. The results were mainly driven by a fall in blue-collar vacancies but the three-month moving average suggests a less ... Read More

GBP

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

The Treasury announced Tuesday that BoE Governor Mervyn King was re-appointed for a second, five-year term. The likelihood of King’s reappointment waned somewhat in September when the central bank was partly blamed for the first UK bank run in 140 years. While the UK economy is entering a stage of slower growth, the continuity of […]

The Treasury announced Tuesday that BoE Governor Mervyn King was re-appointed for a second, five-year term. The likelihood of King's reappointment waned somewhat in September when the central bank was partly blamed for the first UK bank run in 140 years. While the UK economy is entering a stage of slower growth, the continuity of King's term should generally be viewed as positive. Under his governance, the bank will maintain a cautious tone regarding inflation. While risks to the economy remain to ... Read More

CHF, EUR

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

Switzerland’s January KOF indicator confirmed waning momentum in growth. The 1.70 outturn also fell considerably shy of expectations for 1.95. In addition, the December result was revised down from 1.99 to 1.84. The data support not only the SNB view regarding downside risks to growth, but also our economists’ expectation for rate cuts to commence […]

Switzerland's January KOF indicator confirmed waning momentum in growth. The 1.70 outturn also fell considerably shy of expectations for 1.95. In addition, the December result was revised down from 1.99 to 1.84. The data support not only the SNB view regarding downside risks to growth, but also our economists' expectation for rate cuts to commence by Q3. Next to watch: January PMI on Friday; we look for an above-consensus 60.8. Our economists note that of the three modules combining for the headline ... Read More

JPY

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

Japan’s industrial output increased 1.4% m/m in December, below the expected 2.0% rise. The core component, manufacturers’ output, is expected to fall 0.4% in January and to fall another 2.2% in February, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which noted that “industrial output is in a flat trend.” This indicates that companies […]

Japan's industrial output increased 1.4% m/m in December, below the expected 2.0% rise. The core component, manufacturers' output, is expected to fall 0.4% in January and to fall another 2.2% in February, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which noted that "industrial output is in a flat trend." This indicates that companies were influenced by the global slowdown. The OIS market is now pricing in 10.5bp of easing over the next twelve months. Read More

USD

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

The US dollar was broadly weaker in New York trading Wednesday after the Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 50bp to 3.00%, in line with expectations. EURUSD traded up to 1.4906 session highs and USDJPY traded in a 106.32-107.46 range. US equity markets posted gains immediately following the FOMC rate decision but the subsequent […]

The US dollar was broadly weaker in New York trading Wednesday after the Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 50bp to 3.00%, in line with expectations. EURUSD traded up to 1.4906 session highs and USDJPY traded in a 106.32-107.46 range. US equity markets posted gains immediately following the FOMC rate decision but the subsequent downgrade of a major bond insurer kept risk aversion in play, and US equity markets closed down slightly. In conjunction with last week's inter-meeting cut, the Fed ... Read More

My FX technical analysis strategy today

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

USD: Durables exceed expectations JPY: Fukui notes slowing economy GBP: Retail sales slow AUD: Tightening expectations hold firm CAD: Flaherty optimistic BRL: Cautious market ahead of FOMC decision Technical FX: USDCHF heavy below 1.1122
EURUSD NEUTRAL Push above 1.4716 exposes 1.4922/68. Support at 1.4661 ahead of 1.4592 USDJPY BEARISH Bounce from 104.97 is encouraging, but a […]

USD: Durables exceed expectations JPY: Fukui notes slowing economy GBP: Retail sales slow AUD: Tightening expectations hold firm CAD: Flaherty optimistic BRL: Cautious market ahead of FOMC decision Technical FX: USDCHF heavy below 1.1122 EURUSD NEUTRAL Push above 1.4716 exposes 1.4922/68. Support at 1.4661 ahead of 1.4592 USDJPY BEARISH Bounce from 104.97 is encouraging, but a move beyond 107.89 is needed to relieve the immediate bear threat GBPUSD NEUTRAL A sustained move above 1.9922 would expose 2.0102. Support at 1.9731 ahead of 1.9500 ... Read More

CAD

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Tuesday that a US-style stimulus package is not needed in Canada, and that the government supports the Bank of Canada’s trading range for the Canadian dollar. The January survey of Canadian business conditions revealed that Canadian manufacturers are the least optimistic about their production prospects since January 2002. Still, […]

Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Tuesday that a US-style stimulus package is not needed in Canada, and that the government supports the Bank of Canada's trading range for the Canadian dollar. The January survey of Canadian business conditions revealed that Canadian manufacturers are the least optimistic about their production prospects since January 2002. Still, the survey showed that new orders are continuing to rise, exceeding expectations for a decline. USDCAD traded below parity Tuesday for the first time in three weeks ... Read More

AUD

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

The NAB business survey for December, released Tuesday, showed that business conditions rose by 1.9 points to 17 points, well above historical average (7.3 points) but below its October peak. The result was mainly driven by improvement in profitability. However, the survey shows that price pressures accelerated. Retail price inflation was at 2.7% y/y from […]

The NAB business survey for December, released Tuesday, showed that business conditions rose by 1.9 points to 17 points, well above historical average (7.3 points) but below its October peak. The result was mainly driven by improvement in profitability. However, the survey shows that price pressures accelerated. Retail price inflation was at 2.7% y/y from 2.4% y/y in November and 2% y/y in mid 2007. Our Australian economics team believes a near-term rate hike appears likely, while the OIS market is currently ... Read More

GBP

Categories: Daily Technical Analysis Tips and Picks

The UK CBI distributive trades report, released Tuesday, provided further evidence of a January sales slump. The overall retail sales balance decreased to the weakest level since November 2006. The UK economy continues to disappoint expectations as asset price declines weigh on consumer spending. Slowing global growth, in combination with tighter credit conditions, will likely […]

The UK CBI distributive trades report, released Tuesday, provided further evidence of a January sales slump. The overall retail sales balance decreased to the weakest level since November 2006. The UK economy continues to disappoint expectations as asset price declines weigh on consumer spending. Slowing global growth, in combination with tighter credit conditions, will likely bear down on the UK economy, thereby keeping sterling under pressure. As markets start to price in more front-loaded monetary policy easing in the Eurozone, further GBP ... Read More